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U.K. House Prices Rose for Fifth Month in September (Update2)
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By Brian Swint
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) --
U.K. house prices rose for a fifth month in September as a lack of homes for sale helped the property market to erase its losses of the past year, Nationwide Building Society said.
The average cost of a home increased 0.9 percent to 161,816 pounds ($258,000), the mortgage lender said in a statement today. Prices have now dropped 13 percent since the peak in October 2007 and they are at a level last seen at the time of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s collapse last year.
The report adds to signs that Britain is pulling out of its worst economic slump in at least a generation as consumer confidence improves and mortgage approvals pick up. The International Monetary Fund yesterday raised its forecast for U.K. economic growth next year, saying the housing market is now stabilizing.
“The most intense phase of the recession and financial crisis has probably passed,” Martin Gahbauer, chief economist at Nationwide, said in a statement. “The further increase in house prices is very much consistent with improvements in a broad range of economic and financial indicators.”
Prices were unchanged from a year earlier in September, the first time they haven’t shown an annual drop since March 2008, Nationwide said.
The number of houses being sold is still below normal and will probably take another 18 months to return to the level before the financial crisis, the report said. Rising unemployment and banks’ reluctance to lend money are still “headwinds,” Nationwide said.
Housing Forecast
“It would be surprising to see house prices continuing to increase at the very strong rate seen in recent months,” Gahbauer said.
Prices in all the 13 regions of the U.K. rose in the third quarter, led by the southwest and Northern Ireland, Nationwide said. Home values in greater London increased 3.8 percent from the second quarter.
Consumers added 7 billion pounds of equity to their homes in the three months through June, the fifth consecutive quarter when new investment in housing exceeded borrowings extended on mortgages, the Bank of England said today. That suggests consumer spending may be slow to recover from the recession.
The construction industry slump unexpectedly intensified in September, a separate report by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply showed. Its index of building activity fell to 46.7 from 47.7 in August. Economists predicted 48.1, according to the median of eight forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Results below 50 indicate contraction.
IMF Forecast
The IMF says the U.K. economy will expand 0.9 percent in 2010 after previously forecasting growth of 0.2 percent. Consumer confidence jumped the most since 1995 last month, GfK NOP says, and the Bank of England reported yesterday that lenders expect mortgage supply to rise in the fourth quarter.
At their Sept. 10 decision, policy makers said rising asset prices could create a “virtuous upward spiral” for the economy. Chief Economist Spencer Dale said last week that he favored limiting the increase in the bank’s bond purchase plan to 175 billion pounds because of the risk spending more might stoke asset prices too much.
The benchmark interest rate is at a record low of 0.5 percent. The next policy decision is due on Oct. 8.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at
bswint@bloomberg.net.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a02hUZhyg6zQ
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