Recommended trades for today for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

[alroughani]

Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Tuesday January 31st, 2006: EUR/USD
EUR
Asian Session Expected Movement: Up

Today's Trade Analysis: Euro should find support around 1.2075/60 & consolidate with upward bias, B4 continue its MT downtrend. Now 1.2245 key level
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Supports: 1.2075/1.2050/1.2015 Resistances: 1.2135/1.2170/1.2205
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Plan: Buy 1.2075, stop below 1.2025, 4 upmove correction toward 1.2170 & 1.2205



Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Tuesday January 31st, 2006: USD/JPY
JPY
Asian Session Expected Movement: Down

Today's Trade Analysis: Yen’s will face strong resistance around 118.20. If hold will send trend lower toward 115.90. Watch 115.90 development as Key ST level.
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Supports: 117.00/116.60/116.25 Resistances: 117.85/118.20 /118.55
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Plan: Sell 118.05, stop above 118.55, 4 downmove toward 115.90. WATCH 116.30

 

[alroughani]

Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Wednesday February 1st, 2006: EUR/USD
EUR
Asian Session Expected Movement: Down

Today's Trade Analysis: Euro have already met corrective target. Now should find resistance around 1.2160 & develop a powerful downmove towrd 1.1990/1885
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Supports: 1.2075/1.2050/1.2015 Resistances: 1.2160/1.2205/1.2235
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Plan: Sell 1.2160, stop above 1.2210, 4 fall continuation to 1.2020/1.1990 & 1.1885


Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Wednesday February 1st, 2006: USD/JPY
JPY
Asian Session Expected Movement: Up

Today's Trade Analysis: Yen’s retrace as expected & met coprrective target. Now, not so sure already start the upward development & 117.45/60 is ST key
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Supports: 117.00/116.60/116.25 Resistances: 117.85/118.20 /118.55
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Plan: Await European session 2 install positions, as several divergencies warns caution

 

[alroughani]

Update on USD/JPY

It is clearly in uptrend manner and facing strong resistance at 118.30-40
Most likely it will held till at least the NY opening session

The next major resistance lies at 118.80 and then 119.60 which the November 05 high

However, retracement is expected to test the support level at 117.65-75
and possibly testing 117.00-10 before heading higher again if strong economic indicators

I would expect a range between 117.60-118.30 in the European session and aggressive trading the NY session testing the next major support and resistance levels indicated above

 

[alroughani]

Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Friday February 3rd, 2006: EUR/USD
EUR
Asian Session Expected Movement: Down

Today's Trade Analysis: Euro retrace as predicted. Now, not sure is over yet. Anyhow, 1.2110/30 should held & send trend lower to 1.2045/30 & 1.2005/1990
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Supports: 1.2030/1.2015/1.1990 Resistances: 1.2105/1.2125/1.2165
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Plan: Sell 1.2105, stop above 1.2155, for downmove continuation toward 1.2005/1990

Asia Session Open: Tactical Strategy for Friday February 3rd, 2006: USD/JPY
JPY
Asian Session Expected Movement: Up

Today's Trade Analysis: Yen’s technical outlook very risky, as it may continue higher toward 118.65/85, B4 receding. Stay our until overbought levels recede.
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Supports: 118.00/117.65/117.35 Resistances: 118.65/118.85 /119.20
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Plan: Await European session 2 install positions, as several divergencies warns caution

 

[بو محمد]

جزاك الله خير على العمل

يعطيك العفيه أخوى بس إذا أمكن أعرف الموقع اللى إقتبست منه الخبر

وكون شاكر

راح أحط الشارت اللى يدعم كلامهم

على التيم فريم لـلـ 4 ساعات

وعلى تايم فريم لـلـ 1 ساعه

مع ملاحظة مؤشر ستوكاستك
دون الرقم 10 أى جيد للخول شراء لمده وجيزه ثم الخروج لإعطائه sell

تحياتى

 

[بو محمد]

الشارت

الشارت

 

[alroughani]

Hala Bu-Mohammad

Thanks for the charts.

The site is http://www.gcmreach.com

but it is under construction and i am receiving daily emails from them because i have subscribed to them and i though i would benefit the people in this forum

Anyway, you can also view is in part of www.fxstreet.com

Thanks for the charts and i have reviewed the chart in other topics in this forum and indicated clearly that if EUR failed the support at 1.2040
then it will go down to 1.1980 and possibly 1.9550

With respect to the JPy, also if broken the 118.80 then the next target would be 119.50 and al charts indicated it is in up trend with some retracement may occur down to 118.30

Good luck and nice to have a good discussion to view all opinions

 

[alroughani]

I will try to technically analyse the USD/JPY trend on the daily, 4 hourly and hourly charts to give the benefit to the traders and indicate the next resistence and support levels

First if you look at the daily chart, you could notice the uptrend of the USD/JPY started in september 2005 where it jumped more than 800 pips till it reached the maximum figure in December 2005 at 120.00 level

However, it found a good support at the 61.8 Fib retracement at 113.70
And then started to climb again targeting the maximum support.

If you could see, it usually jumps more than 100 pips in 1 week with only minimal retracement

Now it is holding at 118.90 with possible retracement to 118.30 which is the 23.6 Fib retracement where it should find a good support

The next ressistence levels would be 119.50-60 and 120.10-20 which are the Decemeber 2005.

 

[alroughani]

On the 4hourly chart, clearly the critical support level would be 117.70-80
and if this is broken which is unlikely unless there are strong economic indicators, then the bullish trend will be placed on hold

However, the 118.80 which was the previous resistance level is now behaving as a support level followed by the next moderate support at 118.30
which should hold any downtrend next week.

clearly the trend is bulllish supported by MACD and Stoschastics and both will be soon in oversold and push the trend higher to test the 119.50
resistence again next week

 

[alroughani]

Looking at the hourly chart, you could appreciate the oversold price at 118.80
and expect to provide a minor support at short term followed by the moderate support at 118.30 but the major support is 117.80 where it should behave as the critical point for the bullish trend and the 23.6 Fib retracement of 113.70 to 119.50

In summary, all charts indicated the bullish trend if the major support is well protected at 117.70-80
We could expect minor retracement to 118.30 before shooting up to the next resistance levels of 119.50 followed by 120.60 and eventually 121.00 level

Good luck all and i hope i clarified few points

 

[alroughani]

Euro 1.1970

Initial support at 1.1945 (Feb 6 low) followed by 1.1900 (61.8% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.2324).
Initial resistance is now located at 1.2047 (Feb 6 high) followed by 1.2113 (Feb 2 reaction high).


Yen 118.05
Initial support is located at 117.39 (38.2% retracement of the 114.17 – 119.38 rally) followed by 116.69 (Jan 31 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 119.38 (Feb3 high) followed by 121.07 (Dec 12 high).

 

[alroughani]

Eur/usd

The Euro still in downtrend behaviour till it breaks up the 1.2070 barrier where it will put the bearish trend on hold

It has recovered briefly from the bottom of 1.1920 and broke the minor resistence at 1.1970 but still not showing a persistent upward trend

Looking the chart, it is still facing mod resistence at Fib ret 23.6 around 1.2025 and next at fib ret 38.2 at 1.2070

Support still very strong at 1.1920-45 range and if broken will send the trend more down adn to expect 1.1800 test relatively soon

Good luck

 

[alroughani]

​

Euro – 1.1900

Initial support at 1.1876 (Feb 13 low) followed by 1.1800 (76.4% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.2324).

Initial resistance is now located at 1.2027 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.2047 (Feb 6 high).


Yen – 117.45
Initial support is located at 116.87 (Feb 10 low) followed by 116.41 (50% retracement of the 113.41 to 119.41 advance).

Initial resistance is now at 118.28 (Feb 13 high) followed by 118.96 (Feb 10 high).

 

[alroughani]

​

Euro – 1.1900

Initial support at 1.1876 (Feb 13 low) followed by 1.1800 (76.4% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.2324).

Initial resistance is now located at 1.2027 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.2047 (Feb 6 high).


Yen – 117.45
We see momentum continuing to retreat for the pair, with preliminary support at 117.15-20 -the 50% retracement of the 121.36-113.41 move.

Next support is located at 116.87 (Feb 10 low) followed by 116.41
(50% retracement of the 113.41 to 119.41 advance).

Initial resistance is now at 118.28 (Feb 13 high) followed by 118.96 (Feb 10 high).

 

[alroughani]

​

Euro – 1.1920

Despite a dip to 1.1860 yesterday, the 1.1885 key level must be considered as intact, since then the market has finally reached the corrective 1.1935. It may go either way from here, intra-day a favor a rise towards 1.1970 but unless the day closes above 1.2005, we remain bears for 1.1800.

Initial support at 1.1876 (Feb 13 low) followed by 1.1800 (76.4% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.2324).

Initial resistance is now located at 1.2027 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.2047 (Feb 6 high).


Yen – 117.65
Was held inside its range bouncing back from the low 117's to break short-term resistance at 117.50. Bullish bias for 118.10 or even 118.50 as the range 117/119 extends further. A higher close is bullish for 121, underneath, the rising trend-line at 115.80 support is key.

Initial support is located at 116.87 (Feb 10 low) followed by 116.41 (50% retracement of the 113.41 to 119.41 advance).

Initial resistance is now at 118.28 (Feb 13 high) followed by 118.96 (Feb 10 high).

 

[alroughani]

​

Euro 1.1880
Initial support at 1.1860 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.1800 (76.4% retracement of 1.1638 to 1.2324).

Initial resistance is now located at 1.2027 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.2047 (Feb 6 high).



Yen 117.90
Initial support is located at 116.76 (Feb 15 low) followed by 116.41 (50% retracement of the 113.41 to 119.41 advance).

Initial resistance is now at 118.28 (Feb 13 high) followed by 118.96 (Feb 10 high).

 

[alroughani]

JPY
Comment: Caught between a rock and a hard place as we continue to work randomly between 117.00 and 119.00. It is no longer overbought and momentum has collapsed. Weshall allow for more of the same this week. For today expect several swings between 117.50 and 118.50 and no higher than 119.00.

Strategy: Attempt small shorts at 118.30-50; stop above 119.00. Short term target 117.55 and 117.00 further out.


Comment: Especially boring as the Euro spends an inordinate amount of time cautiously probing the downside and attempting to form an interim base. Last week’s rally from a low at 1.1849 has broken trendline resistance, but this is not particularly important. It is no longer oversold and downside momentum has eased very considerably. For today prices should consolidate above 1.1900, setting off a slow short squeeze to decent resistance at 1.2000/1.2050. Only above here does the risk of further downside probing ease.

Strategy:Attempt tiny longs at 1.1930, adding to 1.1900; stop below 1.1849.
Short term target 1.2000/1.2035.

 

[alroughani]

USD/JPY

Market remains capped in a triangle pattern currently between 118.90 & 118.05. Intraday studies are positive for the pair but close to overbought levels.
On the upside, a break above 119.00 would see further upside towards 119.35 & 120.25.

On the downside a break below 118.00 would see further weakness targeting 117.30 & 116.75. The consolidation seen in the past few days allowed daily studies to correct from overbought territory and another up-leg is favored shortly. Stand aside.

Supports: 118.00-117.70-116.70-
Resistances: 118.90-119.50-120.25-
Market direction: Neutral - Bullish
Today's projected high/low: 119.00-118.00

 

[alroughani]

​

EUR/USD

Market made a quick attempt at 1.1975 and bounced lower to the 1.1910 level where pair is currently holding. Intraday studies are heading lower however the downside is expected to remain limited to 1.1900 & 1.1850.

Further upside is expected shortly targeting 1.1975 & 1.2000 next.

On the downside, a break below 1.1850 would see further weakness targeting 1.1780 next.

On the upside, a break above 1.1975 would open way to further upside targeting 1.2115 first. Daily studies are positive for the pair with room to move higher. Look to enter long at 1.1905, keep SL tight.

Supports: 1.1850-1.805
Resistances: 1.1975-1.2025-1.2080
Market direction: Bullish
Today's projected Max high/low: 1.2085-1.1840

 

[alroughani]

​

EURUSD
Remained in range trading but holding above 1.1890/1.1900. A break through the 1.1955 is likely to signal further gains towards 1.1975 and possibly 1.2005/25 area.

Res: 1.1955, 1.1975, 1.2005, 1.2025
Sup: 1.1924, 1.1915, 1.1895, 1.1870


USDJPY
Remains bullish with a break above 118.85/95 will trigger further gains towards 119.40. A break from there sets a new target around 120.40.

Res: 118.87, 119.17, 119.40, 119.55
Sup: 118.23, 117.95, 117.85, 117.50