اتجاه السوق والحذر المطلوب

[nazbull2002]

from Goldman Sachs tech conf

Companies remain cautious in the near-term; consensus opinion appears to be bleeding into longer-term growth estimates, blunting outlooks for 2003 and beyond; Goldman cites that

While companies appear optimistic for a H2 recovery, no one seems able to offer clear evidence of this

Estimates for 2002 remain very low; the highest forecasts calls for growth in the low single digits

Mar qtr conditions suggest the reality of a business environment that has stabilized at low base levels (as compared to the Dec qtr rebound). Goldman believes there is a possibility of widespread revisions to long-term growth outlooks
======================================

is tech (growth) stocks at fair prices???!!!!i

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

‎10)‎ CNBC’s Taking Stock:‎
The 2002 stock market is likely to experience its third consecutive down year, says Bernie Schaeffer, Schaeffer's ‎Investment Research chairman.

With the market priced for perfection, Schaeffer says that any further gains would be ‎muted.

In addition, he warns that “the downside risk from a less favorable economic environment is huge.” He believes the ‎Dow has the potential in 2002 to revisit its 1998 low at about 7400.

So he is avoiding the "over the top" bullish sentiment ‎sweeping the markets and instead focusing on stocks with strong technicals‎

هل في تصور احد من الاخوان بان الداو قد يصل الى 7400 نقطة !!

 

[aaljawal]

اعتقد ان هذا المحلل من محللين ال بيرش الله اعلم

ولكن مستوي 7400 مو قادر استوعبها !!!!!!!!!!!!

ولكن اذا الداء موجود فالدواء موجود ايضا ( stop loss )

وخل كاش معاك تحسبا.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

اذا اقفل النازداك فوق 1800 نقفطة والداو جونز فوق 9700 نقطة فهذا مؤشر جيد يحتاج بعض الارقام الاقتصادية لاعطاء دفعة لارتفاع السوق .

اما اذا ظهرت الارقام الاقتصادية ضعف فمسلسل التراجع سيستمر

 

[aaljawal]

الحمد لله

الله يسّهل.

 

[nazbull2002]

after 5 days of decline and a drop of 162 points, we end up with just 36 points

الحذر مطلوب, الحذر مطلوب

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

Despite a nice rally Friday, the equity markets still finished to the downside on the week.

Hardest hit were technology shares, which continue to struggle because of a lack of earnings and visibility.

We should also take note that the Nasdaq continues to trade at historically high P/E ratios.

Cisco's earnings report didn't help the sector any either, after the company suggested that business conditions remain challenging moving forward.

Take note, the Nasdaq index lost roughly 5% on the week.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

Blue chip shares, on the other hand, did not fare as poorly as the tech sector did, however the losses were still substantial.

Further worries over accounting issues hurt the group, despite many of the bellwethers (e.g. GE) coming out and suggesting they have clean books. For the most part, it was not the best of weeks for the Dow.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

Looking ahead, the markets will receive several key earnings report that could set the tone for the upcoming week.

Set to report are Applied Materials, Brocade and Dell Computer.

With the majority of the technology earnings reports completed, we feel that these three companies need to have something positive to say about the future, otherwise it could be a very rough few weeks for the tech sector.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

As far as the overall market, the technical damage that has been inflicted on the major averages the past few weeks looks serious enough to cause further selling in the days/weeks ahead.

At the same time, charts have not been a very reliable way to predict equity movements recently. This is because fear has taken over in the markets (i.e. worries over how corporate America prepares their books), and this often overshadows technical analysis at least in the near term.

The markets did bounce Friday, but in no way do well feel the markets are out of the woods yet as far as further downside goes.

In our view, there are simply too many obstacles to overcome to see a sustainable move higher (other than a technical bounce) near term and/or until a bottom is put in.

As such, we feel it's best to remain on guard moving forward.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

الارقام الاقتصادية التي نشرت خلال هذه الاسبوع ورغم انخفاض المحزون لاتدل على انتعاش قريب في الاقتصاد الامريكي.

لذا وجب الحذر وخصوصا مع الطاهرة الاترونية المنتشرة في السوق وهي التخوف من الغش في حسابات الشركات .

ولكن لايمنع المستثمر بشراء جزء من كمياته في شركات يختارها بصورة علمية لانه من المتوقع ان تقوم بعض المحافظ الماية الكبيرة بالشراء في هذه الاسهم.

اما المضاربة فكثير من المضاربين في الاسواق الامريكية يشكون حظهم هذه الايام لذلك عليك التفكير جديا قبل اتخاذ القرار واستخدام امر ايقاف الخسائر (ستب لوز ) بناء على مستويات الدعم والمقاومة

مع تمنياتي للجميع بالتوفيق

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

المتابع للسوق يجد ضعف عام في شركات التكنولوجيا بصورة عامة

ولعل من اسباب ذلك ارتفاع اسعارها في السوق وقلة ارباحها في الواقع وتخوف المستثمرين من التلاعب في ميزانياتها حيث اعلن اليوم عن بداية التفتيش من لجنة السوق في ]دفاتر حسابات شركة BRCD

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

ارجو المعذرة الشركة التي يتم تفتيش دفاترها هي NVDA وليست

BRCD

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

After trading sharply lower in the early going on Wednesday, all the major indices staged a strong rally late in the day and closed near the best levels of the day.

Despite the strong rally most traders and analysts are not convinced the latest rally will have any follow through either.

In recent weeks we have seen many such rallies turn out to be pure duds.

We believe Wednesday’s rally does not deserve any merit, and the markets will continue remain choppy and trade in a range.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

The question is what is the range in which the markets will trade?

We believe the intermediate range for the Dow is between 9,600 and 10,000 and the longer-term range is between 9,600 and 10,300.

So if the Dow manages to move through the 10,000 level, it may move up to challenge the 10,300 level.

The Nasdaq Composite on the other hand has been on a short-term downtrend over the past 6 weeks and may find intermediate support around 1,700 and long term support around 1,640. The Nasdaq should trade between 1,700 and 2,050.

 

[www]

1741

1741in nasdaq Approximates a 50% retracement of the September/January rally as well as the November lows.

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

وينك يا nazbull2002 هل راح نشوف 1640 والا مستوى 1600 قوي

مطلوب تعليقك وكل عام وانت بخير

 

[nazbull2002]

I knew that the market would retest yesterday's low (1730) but I didn't expect it as early as today

today's news about INTC is not encouraging but XLNX news after the close is positive

BEAS, CIEN,and BLS news were disappointing while the economy news are positive

It is too hard to predict where this market is heading

with the accounting issues I think nasdaq would trade in a
very tight range between 1650 - 1800 in the near term

friday might be a positive day because of XLNX news but I think the sideline is still the best place
and I warned everybody on Dec/24/2001 when nasdaq was at 1950, but I noticed those days that most of the people were still looking for stocks to buy


http://www.indexsignal.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=1280]

شىء محزن فعلا..الحذر مطلوب, الحذر مطلوب

 

[nazbull2002]

after 4 straight weeks of decline and a drop of more than 200 points

Nasdaq failed to break up resistance at 1737, yes 1737
and that is just about 35 points from today's low, which is also a three month low

when nasdaq hit 1737 and fell sharply to the negative side, I thought we were hitting 2000 resistance...very bearish sign

the DOW is up now for 3 straight weeks...what if DOW retreats


ضحايا ونذبح خرفان ...ما اخبر احد يذبح ثيران

where are the bulls

 

[الاســــتا ذ]

Nowhere to Go But Up

Can Chambers grow Cisco fast enough? Stay tuned for more Enron 'fun' next week.


http://www.fortune.com/indexw.jhtml?channel=artcol.jhtml&doc_id=206570