الاخ بريد الكتروني كتب ان اعرف انسان بظروف الشركة هو كدير الشركة الذي يقول ان الاسهم لاقيمة لها ولنضع حد للمناقشة في هذا الموضوع هذا نص كلامه ارجو الاطلاع عليه بتمعن واعلامي كيف وضعت توقعك بان السهم سيصل الى 60 سنت
11:43AM Exodus Communications (EXDSQ) $0.119 +0.025 Exodus Communications announced yesterday that after all of the restructuring and finance possibilities are worked out, "regardless of the outcome... it is likely that the Company's common stock will have no value." At the risk of sounding like "we told you so" we want to mention that this is the viewpoint we held out in a Stock Brief of 09-Jul-01, The Exodus Debt Problem and Coming Bankruptcy, and then again on 27-Sep-01 Lessons From Exodus Communications . What the bankruptcy boils down to is this: The company owes more than $3.0 billion in debt, but is worth probably less than $1 billion. No growth companies with unprofitable operating models just don't bring high valuations and a reasonable valuation for Exodus is probably 0.8 to 1.0 sales. That might even be generous, given today's capital market environment. That means that, if liquidation occurred, bondholders would get only 30 cents on the dollar, and everyone else gets nothing. Bondholders probably don't want liquidation, as 30 cents on the dollar is a pretty poor return. Instead, they can reasonably expect to convert their bondholders into preferred stock, and try to get an additional return over the 30 cents by participating in the company's growth. But no matter how you cut the pie, it isn't big enough to provide anything for current common share holders. Common probably won't even get the $0.005 per share value that we calculated in our Sept. 27 Stock Brief. Some have emailed us saying that the company's assets are over $5 billion, so there is plenty of money to spread around. Problem is, $1.7 billion of those assets are goodwill from the $6 billion purchase of Global Crossing just one year ago, and $2.7 billion are plants and equipment, which are booked at cost, minus any depreciation. True market value of the goodwill is zero, and of the equipment probably one-quarter or less of the balance sheet worth. It all adds up to one thing: there's nothing to divide up after the bondholders get their claim. And they do have a claim on 100% of the outstanding principal of the bonds. That's the way bonds and bankruptcy laws work. So, who's buying the stock today? Only two possible explanations: Short covering and completely misguided investors. There is just no other rational explanation for why the stock would be rising today. But then again, there really was no rational explanation for why the stock to rose to $90 about 18 months ago, either. - Robert V. Green, Briefing.com