I'm in the sideline again

[nazbull2002]

the market went too high too fast

Dow and Nasdaq are up almost 17% from the lows

the market is overbought

the market is due for correction

daily MSFT downgrades

estimate cut on IBM

MOT warned for next quarter

no solid reason for today's rally

bad 4Q outlook is widly expected

my portfolio made 54% gain in just a week

****** ***** ****** ****** ****** ******
because of the above reasons , I decided to sell all my holdings and take my profits, and watch the earning reports from the sidelines

I don't think there will be any strong rally from current levels

I think the market direction is more to the downside than the upside in the coming two weeks

 

[BNM]

all sectors

nazbull2002 الغائب الحاضر حمد الله على السلامه
هل تعتقد يكون البيع على


جميع القطاعات او يستثنى بعض . وشكرا لكم

 

[nazbull2002]

if you are a long term investor, then you better hold

to me I didn't want to hold any tech. company during the earning season, I think they are going to be the worst performers

BUT
the sideline these days is very scary

 

[no1q8]

بصراحة اليوم السوق شكله صاعد وخصوصا من بداية السوق واري ان قوة السوق مازالت للصعود هذا اليوم والله اعلم مع نهاية السوق.
وشكرا

 

[nazbull2002]

I still believe that the market is due for correction, and it will correct

don't chase tech stocks at current levels in this critical time

 

[nazbull2002]

Recession

signs of inflation

biggest drop in retail sales

uncertainty-anthrax

FBI warnings for another attack

PVN credit card provider warned, saying consumers are having trouble paying their debts

the markets rally on rumors!!! and hopes only

nasdaq was pushed higher by those companies that are fundamentaly poor which they were heavily shorted

**************************************************

I think for those who are still in the sideline, they better remain in the sideline atleast until next week INTC, IBM & MSFT earning reports

even with the above facts , I think the sideline is little risky but buying at current prices is more risky

I still think the market will retreat sharply, poor retail sales can't be ignored

 

[بريد الكتروني]

الأخ نازبول

أعتقد انه في الفتره القادمه يجب الا ننظر الى السوق ككل وانما الى الشركات كلا على حده...النازداك سيبقى يراوح بين 1500 و 1800 لفتره غير قصيره....يعني تقريبا راح يكون ثابت اجمالا لكن بعض الشركات سترتفع 50% وبعضها سينخفض 50% وهذا يعتمد بشكل كبير على نتائج الشركات

 

[nazbull2002]

thank you for your participation which is always a very valuable

I need to clear something here that for those short term investors, it is unwise to ignore the performance of the market or at least any sector as a whole

don't expect for example NVLS to go up 50% and AMAT down 50% in the near future even if NVLS crashes the street forecast and AMAT disappoints badly

it is very rare to find a company that goes in the opposite direction of the market or at least its sector

I would agree if we at least look at any sector as a whole but not to an individual company

for those long term investors, yes I agree that you look to each company but still you need to see the outlook of its sector

I don't think you need to hold the best company in a weak sector or weak market

 

[nazbull2002]

I attached this rule of "THE 12 INVESTMENT STRATEGIES OF EVERY SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR" but still every one has his own strategy

**************************************************

RULE ONE: Know The Primary Trend of The Market! The most important thing to know before you invest is the primary trend of the market. If you for whatever reason, would like to buy IBM, you would be wise to first check the primary direction of the stock market. If the stock market is in a downtrend, it will be difficult or next to impossible for the shares of IBM or any other company to go up in price

Or perhaps you would like to purchase a gold mining stock because of an article you read or a tip from a friend. You should check first to see if the price of gold is in an uptrend. If the price of gold is falling or in a downtrend, it will be difficult or next to impossible for the gold mining shares to go up in price

So the first rule of successful investing is: Never Invest Against The General Trend of The Market

 

[nazbull2002]

the range of 1500 to 1800 is more than enough for the short term investors...I wish the market can maintain this range ,
that's almost 20% range which is almost a 60% range for some companies

but with the uncertainty surrounding the market, I think we might have a very volatile market with a range wider than 300 points

 

[بريد الكتروني]

قانون صحيح في أغلب الأحوال وانا خرجت من السوق في نهايه عام 99 لهذا السبب حيث كانت الأسهم ككل مرتفعه بشكل كبير ومقيمه باكثر من قيمتها الحقيقيه وكنت أرى أن النزول حتمي ولكن لم أكن ادري متى وقد استمر السوق يرتفع لمده اربعه اشهر بعد أن خرجت...ولذلك وبما أني كنت اتوقع نزولا كبيرا للسوق فانه كان من غير المجدي أن اشتري اي سهم حتى ولو كان أفضل من غيره .....

لكن ومن خلال خبرتي فانه في بعض الاوقات يكون هناك شذوذ لهذه القاعده ومن أهم الأوقات التي لاتنطبق فيها هذه القاعده التي أوردتها هو عندما يحدث تغير رئيسي وأنعطاف في اتجاه الأقتصاد وخصوصا اذا كان هذا الانعطاف الى التحسن وهذا ما أعتقد أن الاقتصاد الامريكي يمر به الان كما حصل مثلا في السته الأشهر الاولى من عام 95 أو في الفتره التي أعقبت الازمه الاسيويه في نهايه عام 98 والأشهر الاولى من عام 99....راجع مثلا اداء ديلل وغيتوي مثلا خلال الاشهر السته الماضيه حيث انخفضت غيتوي من 20 الى 5 بينما كانت ديلل ثابته تقريبا رغم أن الشركتين تعملان في نفس المجال ويستعملان نفس النموذج ويبيعون على نفس الزبائن وفي نفس الاسواق....وبالمثل راجع اداء انتل مع ا ام دي خلال نفس الفتره...ومايكروسوفت مع اوراكل...ونورتل مع سيسكو...الخ

والسبب انه وبسبب الركود القوي فان هناك شركات ذات هيكل مالي ضعيف وسوف تعاني حتى لو تحسن الاقتصاد في حين ان منافسيها الأقوياء سياخذون حصتها السوق وسيصبحون أقوى وهذا سيظهر على نتائج الشركات وبالتالي فان الشركات الأضعف ستكون غير مرغوبه

وبما أنك ذكرت كلا من نوفللاس و ابلايد ماتيريالز وكلاهما من الشركات القويه التي بكل تأكيد ستتحركان مع بعض....لكن لنأخذ الركود السابق في هذا القطاع والذي حصل في عام 1998 وبدأ انتعاش هذه الشركات مع بدايه عام 99 وقارن بين الشركه الثالثه في هذا المجال LRCX و SFAM وهي التي كانت في ذلك الوقت الشركه الرابعه في انتاج اجهزه الشرائح الأماميه(FRONT END CHIP EQUIPMENT )....فعندما بدأ الانتعاش كانت سبيدفام تعاني من مشاكل كبيره تعرضت لها اثناء فتره الركود بينما كانت لام ريسيرش في وضع مادي جيد...ماذا حدث.... لام ريسيرش ارتفعت بحوالي 400 في المئه خلال ال 15 شهرا التي أعقبت بدايه الانتعاش في حين كانت سبيدفام تتخبط مكانك سر شهر تطلع وشهر تنزل ولم تستفيد اطلاقا من أكبر انتعاش في تاريخ هذا القطاع رغم أن الشركتين يصنعان نفس الأجهزه ويبيعون على نفس الزبائن ويستعملان نفس التقنيه (CHEMICAL MECHANICAL POLISHING) ...

 

[nazbull2002]

you said
أعتقد انه في الفتره القادمه يجب الا ننظر الى السوق ككل وانما الى
الشركات كلا على حده
I don't think it is wise to hold the best company in a weak sector or a weak market

the key word here is "market trend" so you still can't buy the names you mentioned "the undoubtly survivals" like MSFT, DELL, INTC or CSCO in a downtrend market, you could be ending up holding them at very high price

so before you start buying, you need to look at the market trend and not to the stock news only

look at this

TQNT reaffirmed and increased its earning
forecast on september 18 and it was trading at 20.5$, but it was dragged down to 13.8$ by the market sell off wave

so how can you expect someone to buy the first solid company that will beat and will reaffirm its earning forecast in unsure market trend

here what we should do in basic

1-prepare the list of the best stocks you are willing to buy

2-wait for the market to turn around

3-hit the buy button

BUT NOT

1-prepare the list of the best stocks you are willing to buy

2-don't look to the market, look to the companies you want to buy

3-hit the buy button

any way it is very healthy discussion and I enjoyed it

 

[nazbull2002]

Demand for Hedge Funds

Interest remains very strong with new mandates from clients wanting to invest in hedge funds,'' Nassif told Reuters

Investors have come to the conclusion that equity markets will not rally and the economy is likely to remain weak for some time. From an investor point of view, the likelihood of anything looking attractive is weak. So what's left? Hedge funds