تحليل عن بعض شركات قطاع الاتصالات

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من المعلوم ان قطاع الاتصالات بعاني من الضعف وهذا تقرير صدر من سالمون سمث بارني عن بعض شركات القطاع وتوقعاته لهذه الشركات وهي

EXTR
FDRY
LU
CIEN
NT
TLAB


وللاسف ليس عندي وقت لترجمته فارجو المعذرة

Extreme: (EXTR ) Business On Track As They Went Into The Quiet Period. As Extreme entered its quiet period, it was indicating the quarter was on track. It has new products ramping, which should provide some kick to March in and above the seasonal swing. They also said they expected to gain share in 2Q after a flat market share performance in 1Q driven primarily by its new product cycle timing.

Foundry: ( FDRY) Activity Running Ahead of Target. Foundry is indicating its activity is running up 20%. While not all of this and probably not even most of it will land in the current
quarter, it adds to the visibility and the potential for June quarter improvement. Foundry couldn’t determine if the improvement reflected economic conditions or its new product
cycle timing, or both. We suspect the majority of the improvement in activity reflects the product cycle.

 

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Traditional Wireline Companies

Nortel: NT Business Conditions Are Difficult—Management Lowered Guidance In The Middle Of The Quarter And Conditions Have Eroded Subsequently. It seems like ages ago when Nortel opened up the prerelease season by lowering expectations for the quarter at an analyst meeting in the first half of February. Subsequently, we have seen considerable added pressures and capital spending cuts from the service provider industry.

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Lucent: LU Lowered Guidance During The Quarter As Conditions Continue To Deteriorate But They Are Still Looking For An Up Q-Q Revenue Performance. Lucent recently lowered its revenue expectations for the quarter and full year citing weakening conditions in the service provider end markets. This weakening of conditions appears to have also flattened the shape of the recovery management anticipates.

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Tellabs: TLAB Conditions Remain Difficult—Expect Sequentially Flattish Service Provider Spending Into 2Q And 3Q With A Stronger 4Q. Most recent guidance suggests a 10% decline Q-Q. At the heart of Tellabs concerns about the near term outlook appears to be the recognition that the business conditions of the service provider customers continues to erode and may have eroded more rapidly in the current quarter than they had been expecting. This is likely resulting in delays in the timing of capital spending and reductions in the overall spending levels. Tellabs believes this is much more prevalent in the IXCs than in the ILECs, but likely across the board. According to Steve McCarthy, 60 days ago he thought the recovery would be in 1Q 2002, but now it looks like it may be pushed further out, implying erosion in the conditions during the current quarter. Tellabs expects its stars to line up for the fourth quarter. It expects new product traction particularly with the Titan 6500 to be kicking in. It expects the Ocular revenues to start to ramp. It thinks the pent up spending from the dour conditions in the first three quarters may result in a budget flush in the fourth quarter and they hope that the conditions will start to turn in the economy enough to force some spending for capacity in order to satisfy customer demands.
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ONI Systems: ONIS Preannounced A Sharp Short Fall And Indicated Conditions Have Eroded Sharply During The Quarter. After giving guidance of essentially flat Q-Q revenues, ONI prereleased a short fall of roughly 50%. On the call, management indicated it was seeing a downturn during the quarter “representative of the eroding conditions.”

Management noted that most service providers are pushing out the timing and reducing the scale of their spending intentions. Moreover, management is indicating the weakness is a worldwide phenomenon.
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Ciena: CIEN Sharp Cut In Outlook For Quarter Made In Mid February. Ciena sharply lowered its guidance for the upcoming quarter when it released it’s prior quarter.

The guidance reflects a drop of roughly 30%-35% Q-Q in revenues citing intense pressure on the service providers, reduced capital spending and timing delays. Management indicated they had received news of significant order reductions from "two large customers", who, in our
opinion, were likely Qwest and Sprint.