After Market Report
Summary of This Week’s Trading
This week we saw the Dow further deteriorate into a fresh low for the year while the S&P struggled for support. While the blue chips have remained weak over the past few weeks, the tech recovery, which caused the Nasdaq to rally back from a technical breakdown last summer, has remained in tact. During this week’s market weakness the Nasdaq spent the week continuing its basing pattern as smart money continued to accumulate. Friday, even the recently strengthening semiconductor sector took a stab down, causing the Nasdaq to tumble backward
So, now that the strongest sectors are starting to give way to market weakness is it time to join the crowd and become bearish? Not at all. In a correction, the strongest index will often show great relative strength until the final move begins, then it corrects hard. This seems to be due to the fact that initially, it's the weaker sectors that are being sold and that liquidity is going into buying sectors which are holding up better. When the fear factor gets strong enough as the correction nears its end, even the strong sectors are sold (throwing the baby out with the bath water). This leads to a disheartening plunge in what had been a safe haven of security. This is the final shake of the money tree which releases the weak hands from their positions
This week we continue to watch the semiconductors, which have been under serious accumulation. The risk/reward for this sector is very high here, with a strong bottoming pattern in place and conditions that are very oversold, we expect to see a strong move to the upside begin soon. In fact, we will go against the crowd here and predict that we could see a strong move before the election. This would be exactly the kind of contrarian development that would go against general consensus as the market is oftentimes prone to do